Analisis Rasio Keuangan Camel Terhadap Prediksi Kepailitan

Bank Umum Swasta Nasional di Indonesia Periode 2004 – 2007

Abstract

The challenge of the banking sector in the future will be more severe, most of which are perceived  as  a  failure  of  risk  management  in  managing  risk  can  lead  to  bankruptcy. CAMEL financial  ratio analysis can be used as an early warning system of bankruptcy. The purpose  of this study are: 1) to obtain  empirical  evidence  regarding  differences  in financial ratios simultaneously CAMEL significant between bankrupt and insolvent banks, 2) to obtain empirical evidence regarding differences in financial ratios partially CAMEL significant  between  bankrupt  and  insolvent  banks,  3)  to  obtain  empirical  evidence regarding  the dominant  CAMEL financial  ratio in differentiating  the bank bankrupt  and not bankrupt and 4) to determine the ability of the prediction of several variables distinguishing the CAMEL financial ratios in predicting bankruptcy.

Based  on  the  purpose  of  this  study  include  explanatory  research  to  test  the  ability  of CAMEL  financial  ratio  of CAR,  KP,  APYD,  APYDAP,  NPA,  PPAP,  ROA,  ROE, NIM, BOPO, the FBI and the LDR, in predicting  bankruptcy  in the National Private Banks in Indonesia period 2004 to 2007. The financial statements are used for bank bankruptcy is a two-year financial statements before the bankruptcy, while for banks that do not fit with the bankrupt  bank's financial  reporting  period of bankruptcy. Analysis tools used to test the hypothesis is discriminant analysis using the direct method.

The  results  showed:  1)  CAMEL  financial  ratio  to  simultaneously   have  a  significant difference between bankrupt and insolvent banks, 2) CAMEL financial ratio that have significant differences between the bank's partial bankruptcy and no bankruptcy is PPAP, ROE,  NIM,  BOPO  and  LD,  3  )  CAMEL  financial  ratio  in  the  aspect  of  profitability (earnings)  ratio  of  the  NIM  is  the  dominant  bank  in  distinguishing  bankrupt  and  not bankrupt, 4) The prediction of several variables distinguishing the CAMEL financial ratio can be used to accurately predict bankruptcy and stable. Other results obtained from this research is by using a model of the cut-off point, the discriminant  function generated  by CAMEL financial ratio to predict bank is able to distinguish who is in financial trouble.